Let’s not waste time with a protracted preamble. It is Sunday’s NFL Championship. Within the NFC Event, the highest seed and NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles She is going to host the second seed and NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.
These two groups have been the 2 finest groups within the convention for the overwhelming majority of the season, and so they’ll beat it for the precise to characterize the NFC on the Tremendous Bowl. Earlier than we break down the match, here is a take a look at find out how to watch the match.
How do you watch
Date: Sunday 29 January | time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Monetary Subject (Philadelphia)
tv: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (Attempt without cost)
Prospect: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46 (Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Featured sport | Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
When the 49ers have the ball
Let’s begin by speaking about Brock Purdy, as a result of the way in which he handles the Philadelphia rush might be the turning level on this sport.
Earlier than final week’s sport vs CowboysPurdy has fallen again to go 177 instances since taking up the position of Jimmy Garoppolo once more in Week 13. He has accomplished 110 of 161 passes (68.3%) for 1,308 yards (8.12 per try), 13 touchdowns and solely three interceptions. He was sacked 11 instances, and confronted strain at in regards to the common price within the league (32.8% vs. 32.6%). The Dallas rush was in a position to get Purdy extra usually final week (48.5% strain price, per Tru Media), and although Purdy was solely sacked twice and never picked off (though he did have a possible dropped interception), his effectivity took successful. (7.38 yards per try).
Through the common season, the Cowboys have been the most effective workforce within the league at getting pressured (43.3% of opponent operating again), however the Eagles have been simply behind them in second place (38.4%). And the Eagles have been barely higher at changing pressures into sacks: 11.2% of Philly pressures resulted in quarterback takedowns (first within the NFL), in comparison with 8.9% of Dallas pressures (second). This distinction might be extremely significant on this match.
The Eagles can throw extra our bodies on their go rush than the Cowboys can. Jonathan Gannon will spin by Hasson Reddick, Josh Candy, Brandon Graham, and Robert Quinn on the sting, whereas bringing in (principally) Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave within the center. San Francisco has elite left sort out in Trent Williams on the left aspect of the road, however Mike McClinchey might be susceptible on the precise, and guards Aaron Banks and Spencer Burford are higher at blocking runs than defending passes.
In fact, Kyle Shanahan might be the premier offensive planner within the league proper now, and can undoubtedly create benefits for Purdy. Shanahan has loads of instruments at his disposal to create extensive throwing passes: Solely 9.4% of Purdy’s passes have been thrown in a decent window this season, based on NFL.com’s Subsequent Gen Stats, good for the second lowest price within the NFL. These extensive passes usually give the likes of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey loads of room to run the ball, which is why Purdy ranks third within the NFL behind solely Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes in yards after catches. (6.45).
Shanahan strikes Samuel and Aiyuk across the formation so he would not regularly subdue them to both Darius Slay or James Bradberry on the skin, however the anticipated return of Eagles slot nook Avonte Maddox softens that technique a bit. Philadelphia ranks twenty seventh in success price in opposition to throws to the outlet when Maddox is out this season, based on Tru Media, and first when Maddox is within the discipline. Bringing him again into the fold would make all of the distinction.
We all know San Francisco’s offense is designed to assault the center of the sector, and Shanahan, Purdy & Co. will probably attempt to make the most of Philadelphia gamers. (Kittle ought to be fairly particular right here.) A lot of the midfield passing sport depends upon the play offense, although, and Philly has been first within the EPA for each opponent operating again for go performs this season. The Rivals accomplished simply 59.7% of their passes for a mean of 6.56 yards per try, whereas additionally throwing six touchdowns in opposition to 5 interceptions. The 49ers’ passing offense could be very totally different from the league’s customary offense, however there may be purpose to imagine that Philly is best geared up than most opponents to deal with it.
Due to all of those components, the Niners will probably attempt to battle this struggle within the operating sport. Philadelphia has had a significantly better passing landing (a primary in DVOA for out of doors soccer) than the twenty first spherical this season, although the Eagles have fared higher in that division after they managed to make use of no less than one off Jordan Davis and/or Linval Joseph. The San Francisco rush checks groups with selection and misdirection. He’s not out of the zone after the outer zone after the outer zone. The 49ers will run all types of schemes now, giving the ball to a number of various gamers. They’ll pressure opponents to declare their intentions based mostly on the place Samuel, McCaffrey, Awok, or Kyle Goshek line up, after which use these intentions in opposition to them.
The Philadelphia protection is not fairly as quick because the Dallas unit that San Francisco battled in opposition to final week (there are only a few gamers quicker than Micah Parsons, in any case), so the Eagles could also be extra inclined to ambient influences. They didn’t see a lot success within the divisional spherical. The Niners will use both McCaffrey, Samuel, or Elijah Mitchell (if he performs) on these punts, and every can harm the protection in numerous methods.
When the Eagles have the ball
One of the best factor about Philadelphia’s offense this season is that it has proven a powerful capability to fluctuate as a way to assault the opposition’s particular weaknesses. Dangerous in opposition to escape? The Eagles would hit the rock all day, as they did speeding for over 250 yards in two totally different video games in opposition to the Giants, and an unbelievable 363 yards in opposition to Packers. Weak in entrance of the go? They will gentle you within the air, like after they solely had 19 speeding again makes an attempt in opposition to Jalen Hurts’ 39 passes in opposition to titansand burned them for 380 yards and three scores.
The 49ers protection is nice in virtually each method. The Niners completed the common season second in DVOA speeding protection, and fifth in opposition to go protection. They have been first within the EPA per dip and first within the EPA on the speeding try. They generated above-average pressures and sacks, rating third within the league in yards allowed earlier than a name per rush and first in yards after a name. They not often allowed explosive passes or passes, and have been arguably the most effective sort out workforce within the NFL. They’re extremely nicely educated, have just a few absolute freaks who can smash any opponent’s sport plan in Nick Bosa, Eric Armistead, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
So, the place do vultures assault? For me, it is deep within the discipline. The 49ers have been first within the DVOA in opposition to quick passes, however solely twenty fourth in opposition to deep passes. The showdown between AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, Charvarius Ward and Decommore Lenoir is taken into account probably the most important on this facet of the showdown. When throwing for no less than 20 yards downfield, Hurts was 22 of 55 for 823 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions throughout the common season. Solely two corners have allowed extra completions on these throws this season than Lenoir, who yielded seven completions on 13 makes an attempt, for 231 yards and a landing.
The issue with attacking on this method is that the 49ers design their protection to get these throws out of the way in which. They play a whole lot of excessive protection: They have been one in all solely 5 groups to play no less than 125 catches of each Cowl-2 and Cowl-4 throughout the common season. They’ll typically line up from their cornerbacks on the line of scrimmage, however cowl a deep quarter of the sector. They do not need groups that go deep, and for probably the most half, groups do not. Solely 9.8% of an opponent’s go makes an attempt traveled no less than 20 yards within the air, the tenth lowest price within the league. The place openings can be found, opponents have been in a position to take benefit typically.
One of many biggest steps the Eagles have taken as an offense this 12 months has been their capability to assault in the midst of the sector. The Hurts not often threw there final season, however the addition of AJ Brown and opening Dallas Goedert means they’ve labored there greater than as soon as this season. However nobody is best at reducing out the center than the Niners, as a result of nobody else has Warner and Greenlaw. Which means that the tactic of assault is from the skin. Once more, which means going Lenoir and (to a lesser extent) Ward with passes down the sector.
The primary sport of the whole weekend, although, might be one in all arguably the most effective defensive position within the NFL in opposition to the most effective defensive position. Nick Bosa, Samson Ipokam, Charles Omeniho and Jordan Willis vs. Jordan Mailata and Lynn Johnson. Arik Armistead, Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens, and Ty McGill vs. Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelsey, and Isaac Somalo. Philadelphia leaves its interventions on an island Extra usually than any workforce within the NFL, which implies there will probably be possibilities for Bosa to get across the nook and get to Hurts…if he can catch him, that’s.